It’s fair to call the Cape Tarkhankut site the linchpin of Russian air and naval defenses across the Black Sea. Which is why the Ukrainian armed forces blew it up.
What I don’t get: Doesn’t this turn the Wagner mercenaries into even more of loose cannons? What’s stopping them to just fracture into chaotic splinter groups now?
Note that a good chunk of contemporary Wagner soldiers are forcibly recruited criminals. If there’s something less reliable than a mercenary, that’s a forcibly recruited criminal.
his name is a really easy banner to fly now… he basically can’t do anything wrong anymore… he died a hero trying to save Russians from the corruption of Putin… the anger will just grow, especially once that army in Ukraine starts knocking on doors inside Russia…
everyone sees that Putin just did it because he was AFRAID of Prigozhin
Even though I think that’s how it may have played in the West, it seemed like Prigozhin stayed pretty loyal to Putin all throughout, he was really careful to not lay any blame on Putin, more that he was misled. If anything, I wonder if blame will be placed on Shoigu, the Defense minister, that’s who Prigozhin’s beef was with I thought. I’d assume there will be some mob-style reprisals against Shoigu and/or the military leadership rather than against Putin himself. That still may benefit Ukrainians regardless.
Putin won’t axe Shoigu he’s his perfectly loyal Tuvan pet… not necessarily loyal to Putin (he started under Yeltsin), but to the office of the president: Shoigu is guaranteed to not make a move for office because he has no chance in the first place because racism.
He’s pretty much the only person among the Siloviki who is guaranteed to not use their position as head of the army to putsch. Shoigu’s best play is to be loyal to whoever happens to be his boss, and that’s what he’s doing. He may be otherwise incompetent bu he understands politics.
Thank you for linking that. The anthem absolutely slaps. Now I wish I was Tuvan. Or, at the very least, I wish the Russian Federation would collapse so Tuva can participate in the Olympics under their own flag, and then I will cheer for them so I can hear this anthem.
i don’t disagree with one bit of your analysis, i’m just not sure Shoigu will be enough once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways… popcorn time in any case, like you say…
once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways
I doubt the West will supply arms for a large-scale invasion of Russia. They’ve already made it clear that the stuff that they are supplying is to be used only in Ukraine, occupied Ukraine, and Crimea, and not anywhere in Russia proper. And Ukraine has been very careful to strike inside Russia only with weapons that do not come from Western governments, and to aim only at military and government targets inside Russia. I doubt a ‘real’ invasion will happen. Drone worries and border skirmishes, certainly; actual march-on-Moscow invasion, I doubt it.
And on a more realistic note, Ukraine can only continue to fight as long as they have effective weapons, in large numbers - numbers too large for it’s treasury to handle.
They have to get the arms from somewhere. Their best bet right now is the West, which has large amounts of various weapons designed to fight the Russians.
If they lost the support of the West, it’s possible they could cobble together enough materiel from other sources - countries that would welcome Russian weakness, or welcome Russia’s distraction, or see Ukraine as a buffer, or who simply want influence in the area. They could cobble together an arms supply from those sources, but the supply would be erratic, be less designed for interoperability, and would likely run out faster than the Ukrainians’ need. I mean, even the US is struggling to supply enough munitions to Ukraine, I’m not sure who can keep up with the needed supply if the US steps out.
that is not an Army “being supported by” anyone… it exists. it was armed and trained by NATO, that’s correct… it is basically a NATO force now… deal with it or not, they’re going to show you…
there is no force anywhere in Europe that can stop that Army now… it doesn’t matter if you understand that or not… they don’t need help…
You can have the best, most elite fighting force on the face of the planet. They still need weapons, they still need ammo, they still need grenades and rockets and artillery shells, their weapons and tanks and APC’s and drones still need servicing and replacements.
In short, Ukraine needs an entire war-oriented production line and logistics/supply system. They have one now, courtesy of the EU, the US, and Ukraine’s other allies. A significant percentage of that military aid came from the US. The US is interested in helping Ukraine regain it’s full sovereignty including Crimea, and protecting it’s European allies. It has absolutely no interest in or appetite for, any real invasion of Russian soil. The US and the EU have repeatedly told Ukraine that Ukraine cannot use any materiel supplied by the US, the EU, or European nations, in any attack on Russia itself.
Ukraine cannot ‘win’ an invasion of Russia with the weapons it currently has: they don’t have enough weapons or anywhere near enough ammo to do it. They may have enough for quick strike forces, but they certainly don’t have enough men to actually occupy Russia. Your dream of Ukrainian tanks rolling down Russian highways is just that - a dream.
As for your assertion that “that is not an Army “being supported by” anyone […] they don’t need help”: here is a list of military retirement that the US has sent so far - it doesn’t even invite what Ukraine has received from other countries or companies. Please explain to me how Ukraine, even with the best army in the world, would win it’s war without the weapons and ammo supplied by it’s allies. And again, this is just a list of the US military aid, not the EU, not Australia or any of the other countries and companies sending supplies. U.S. security assistance to Ukraine between January 20, 2020, and June 27, 2023:
[Please see my reply to this comment, it’s a long list]
Doesn’t this turn the Wagner mercenaries into even more of loose cannons? What’s stopping them to just fracture into chaotic splinter groups now?
There’s a BBC article right now that addresses that question in some detail. Take it with a grain of salt, but it points out that Wagner forces have not been on the ground in Ukraine since Prigozhin’s June march, Putin has had two months to plan for the transition, there are already replacement candidates, and the real difficulty may lie more in finding a leader with cash who will not oppose the Putin regime than in simply finding a leader, because Prigozhin was funding much of Wagner himself:
Nothing, and a few probably will. But a few small groups are much more easily handled. I wouldn’t be surprised if smashing the group was the main motivation behind the plane crash.
What about just one guy with a grudge and a shoulder-fired missile launcher (anti-aircraft or anti-tank, depending on how you prefer to travel)? I’m sure Putin himself has countermeasures but he may still have problems unless his men can track down every Wagnerite who may have taken home a souvenir from Ukraine.
Historically, in Russia one guy with a grudge and a shoulder-fired missile launcher would have dropped the grudge in favor of selling the launcher for personal gain.
It takes a certain measure of belief and optimism to go against a distant enemy so physically removed from you and protected at every step, like Putin’s government. It takes even more to make a rogue soldier think one shoulder launcher would make any difference at all. But it takes no faith or hope at all to sell whatever can be sold and live like your commanders for a day.
That’s not to say it would never happen; I think it’s far likelier now than it ever has been in my lifetime. But the Russian mindset is completely different than our own in the west, they’ve had many more centuries of “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” than we have, and at the end of the day it’s just much easier, safer and more profitable to sell out.
That’s a really good question. Lots of implications. Will they attack the Kremlin? Will they continue stabilizing dictatorships in Africa? Will the Kremlin get control of them and use them in Ukraine? Revenge assassinations?
What I don’t get: Doesn’t this turn the Wagner mercenaries into even more of loose cannons? What’s stopping them to just fracture into chaotic splinter groups now?
As soon as these mercenaries stop getting paid, they’ll wander off and find another paymaster.
Note that a good chunk of contemporary Wagner soldiers are forcibly recruited criminals. If there’s something less reliable than a mercenary, that’s a forcibly recruited criminal.
his name is a really easy banner to fly now… he basically can’t do anything wrong anymore… he died a hero trying to save Russians from the corruption of Putin… the anger will just grow, especially once that army in Ukraine starts knocking on doors inside Russia…
everyone sees that Putin just did it because he was AFRAID of Prigozhin
Even though I think that’s how it may have played in the West, it seemed like Prigozhin stayed pretty loyal to Putin all throughout, he was really careful to not lay any blame on Putin, more that he was misled. If anything, I wonder if blame will be placed on Shoigu, the Defense minister, that’s who Prigozhin’s beef was with I thought. I’d assume there will be some mob-style reprisals against Shoigu and/or the military leadership rather than against Putin himself. That still may benefit Ukrainians regardless.
Putin won’t axe Shoigu he’s his perfectly loyal Tuvan pet… not necessarily loyal to Putin (he started under Yeltsin), but to the office of the president: Shoigu is guaranteed to not make a move for office because he has no chance in the first place because racism.
He’s pretty much the only person among the Siloviki who is guaranteed to not use their position as head of the army to putsch. Shoigu’s best play is to be loyal to whoever happens to be his boss, and that’s what he’s doing. He may be otherwise incompetent bu he understands politics.
(Side note: Tuva does have a kickass national anthem, with throat singing and everything)
Here is an alternative Piped link(s): https://piped.video/watch?v=KQaw-li9NQ8
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I’m open-source, check me out at GitHub.
Thank you for linking that. The anthem absolutely slaps. Now I wish I was Tuvan. Or, at the very least, I wish the Russian Federation would collapse so Tuva can participate in the Olympics under their own flag, and then I will cheer for them so I can hear this anthem.
i don’t disagree with one bit of your analysis, i’m just not sure Shoigu will be enough once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways… popcorn time in any case, like you say…
I doubt the West will supply arms for a large-scale invasion of Russia. They’ve already made it clear that the stuff that they are supplying is to be used only in Ukraine, occupied Ukraine, and Crimea, and not anywhere in Russia proper. And Ukraine has been very careful to strike inside Russia only with weapons that do not come from Western governments, and to aim only at military and government targets inside Russia. I doubt a ‘real’ invasion will happen. Drone worries and border skirmishes, certainly; actual march-on-Moscow invasion, I doubt it.
nothing on this Earth is going to stop that Army… they will do what they want now… you just expressed every Russian’s delusional dream…
Russians have some waking up in store for them
And on a more realistic note, Ukraine can only continue to fight as long as they have effective weapons, in large numbers - numbers too large for it’s treasury to handle.
They have to get the arms from somewhere. Their best bet right now is the West, which has large amounts of various weapons designed to fight the Russians.
If they lost the support of the West, it’s possible they could cobble together enough materiel from other sources - countries that would welcome Russian weakness, or welcome Russia’s distraction, or see Ukraine as a buffer, or who simply want influence in the area. They could cobble together an arms supply from those sources, but the supply would be erratic, be less designed for interoperability, and would likely run out faster than the Ukrainians’ need. I mean, even the US is struggling to supply enough munitions to Ukraine, I’m not sure who can keep up with the needed supply if the US steps out.
that is not an Army “being supported by” anyone… it exists. it was armed and trained by NATO, that’s correct… it is basically a NATO force now… deal with it or not, they’re going to show you…
there is no force anywhere in Europe that can stop that Army now… it doesn’t matter if you understand that or not… they don’t need help…
You can have the best, most elite fighting force on the face of the planet. They still need weapons, they still need ammo, they still need grenades and rockets and artillery shells, their weapons and tanks and APC’s and drones still need servicing and replacements.
In short, Ukraine needs an entire war-oriented production line and logistics/supply system. They have one now, courtesy of the EU, the US, and Ukraine’s other allies. A significant percentage of that military aid came from the US. The US is interested in helping Ukraine regain it’s full sovereignty including Crimea, and protecting it’s European allies. It has absolutely no interest in or appetite for, any real invasion of Russian soil. The US and the EU have repeatedly told Ukraine that Ukraine cannot use any materiel supplied by the US, the EU, or European nations, in any attack on Russia itself.
Ukraine cannot ‘win’ an invasion of Russia with the weapons it currently has: they don’t have enough weapons or anywhere near enough ammo to do it. They may have enough for quick strike forces, but they certainly don’t have enough men to actually occupy Russia. Your dream of Ukrainian tanks rolling down Russian highways is just that - a dream.
As for your assertion that “that is not an Army “being supported by” anyone […] they don’t need help”: here is a list of military retirement that the US has sent so far - it doesn’t even invite what Ukraine has received from other countries or companies. Please explain to me how Ukraine, even with the best army in the world, would win it’s war without the weapons and ammo supplied by it’s allies. And again, this is just a list of the US military aid, not the EU, not Australia or any of the other countries and companies sending supplies. U.S. security assistance to Ukraine between January 20, 2020, and June 27, 2023:
[Please see my reply to this comment, it’s a long list]
“And we’ll hate him… cause he’s a Dark Knight.”
There’s a BBC article right now that addresses that question in some detail. Take it with a grain of salt, but it points out that Wagner forces have not been on the ground in Ukraine since Prigozhin’s June march, Putin has had two months to plan for the transition, there are already replacement candidates, and the real difficulty may lie more in finding a leader with cash who will not oppose the Putin regime than in simply finding a leader, because Prigozhin was funding much of Wagner himself:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66604261
Nothing, and a few probably will. But a few small groups are much more easily handled. I wouldn’t be surprised if smashing the group was the main motivation behind the plane crash.
What about just one guy with a grudge and a shoulder-fired missile launcher (anti-aircraft or anti-tank, depending on how you prefer to travel)? I’m sure Putin himself has countermeasures but he may still have problems unless his men can track down every Wagnerite who may have taken home a souvenir from Ukraine.
Historically, in Russia one guy with a grudge and a shoulder-fired missile launcher would have dropped the grudge in favor of selling the launcher for personal gain.
It takes a certain measure of belief and optimism to go against a distant enemy so physically removed from you and protected at every step, like Putin’s government. It takes even more to make a rogue soldier think one shoulder launcher would make any difference at all. But it takes no faith or hope at all to sell whatever can be sold and live like your commanders for a day.
That’s not to say it would never happen; I think it’s far likelier now than it ever has been in my lifetime. But the Russian mindset is completely different than our own in the west, they’ve had many more centuries of “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” than we have, and at the end of the day it’s just much easier, safer and more profitable to sell out.
You missed Afghanistan’s war huh?
That’s a really good question. Lots of implications. Will they attack the Kremlin? Will they continue stabilizing dictatorships in Africa? Will the Kremlin get control of them and use them in Ukraine? Revenge assassinations?