I have a 16-year-old son. I’m in my early 30s (had him very young) and a professional footballer. My son also dreams of becoming a successful footballer (he’s been playing since he was 6), but he’s just… not great. He’s good, but not great - and in this extremely competitive industry you need to be at least great in order to even stand a chance. So I told him, as someone who’s been doing this for a very, very long time & is active in this sphere, that he should find another, more attainable dream. He took it as me not believing in him, but I’m just objective and realistic.
I don’t think you’re a jerk. Your son is 16, more than old enough to handle it. The fact of the matter is that, in professional sports, most young boys are scouted by the time they’re his age; if it hasn’t happened yet, it probably won’t.
He needs to start planning for a more realistic future, but he’s allowed to think you’re being too hard on him. You don’t have to be responsible for his mistakes if he chooses to make them, you already did your job by telling him to think more realistically.
Do you think he might be good enough for a foreign league if he works his ass off? Not every basketball player is good enough for the NBA, but a lot are good enough to play in China or Europe, for example. Maybe, if this career is what he really wants, it would help your relationship if you gave him some pointers about playing in a league he might be more competitive in.
That said, you could also try to see if he might enjoy sports medicine or some other adjacent career, like training. Surely you know what might be a good fit for him outside of being a player, considering your experience. Giving him other options that still allow him to be close to the sport might be a nice way to show him that you still think he can be involved in professional sports in some capacity.