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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • Actually he is doing a:

    “Give money, or I let the guy with the gun shoot you”

    It’s the same scheme he uses to pressure Zelensky/Ukraine.

    (The NATO agreement was “attempt for 2%” and no way to enforce it if it didn’t work out, so Trump’s whole “or else” point is a form of blackmail outside of the written agreements)

    Doesn’t detract from your other point, the European armies do need a boost, have needed one for a while now. And as a combined bloc the EU should muster up a permanent standing (modern) army.

    They should also buy/manufacture their own equipment to be less dependable on the whims of the US and keep their defense funds within the EU. But I’ll bet this is something Trump does not want to happen, perhaps he’ll start shouting the EU should pay HIM 5% and not NATO…

    Ad a sidenote, the EU should now be seen as one financial entity and count the % to that, not individual countries.




  • You’re right, but what you’re not quite mentioning is that most of these defeats came from Russia instigating the conflict (even well before the communist revolution). Ie. it performed small invasions in various Baltic states, sweden and finland in the Napoleonic eras and was a general nuisance at the borders.

    Russias long time battle strategy of using its populace as cannon fodder, and seeing individuals as worthless workers for the state, is also the reason why it never amounts to actually realizing the huge threat outsiders think it is.

    In potential they can amass every citizen in the working force for their military complex.
    But if those same citizens are bereft of anything that inspires them the fighting spirit dwindles and force must be used to push them to fight which isn’t a great thing for morale.

    It showed in the Russian defeat against Napoleon, Napoleon took his inspired armies deep inside Russia, and all the Russians had as a strategy was just torch every town, city and granary in Napoleon’s path, untill he got stuck in the freezing winter without supplies nor local inhabitants to aid his conquest. The same thing it did with its own people during the communist revolution, it torched villages and killed livestock of any single Russians against the regime change. World War 2 also saw this tactic being used, and in Ukraine we’re seeing it again.

    So the thing is, be it under the Tsar, the communist regime, or under Putins hybrid oligarchic communism, the cannon fodder doctrine never left the Russian way of thinking.

    And this, in essence, also is why Russia is considered the antithesis and “the enemy” to the West’s view of individualism.


  • Seeing how the European members are one financial bloc it would be appropriate to count them as one and average their spending, then it would probably go past the 2% easily (I don’t have nor know how to use the relevant data, so correct me if I am wrong).

    But this is not useful for Trump’s reasoning to want to leave NATO so he will not do that and count everyone separately, be it EU or other members.

    He needs the excuse, and seeing how the EU is thwarting his and Putins plans for Ukraine, I can see Trump will come with an ultimatum this or next year to actually leave/dismantle NATO.

    I am convinced that the only thing keeping Trump from leaving NATO right now is the income the Military Industry is receiving from this.


  • I fully agree.

    Granted, many members were below the agreed upon spending of 2%

    And he somewhat correctly complained about that…

    Though some were above 2% already and Trump had nothing but silence for it…

    But now that members drastically increased spending (not just because of him but also due to the Putin factor) Trump suddenly demands 5% across the board … already Poland is over that (because of Putin, not Trump) and Germany approaching it …

    Trump knows/is told most members can not raise to 5% …and will use their non compliance to his orders as an excuse to torpedo NATO.

    But I am sure when a few others do pass 5% he’ll go to 8% just to spite things and make sure Putin is appeased with his instilled chaos.


  • I mostly agree, but I think the list needs Germany’s excellent Leopard (2) tanks, the modern APC variants and all their industry.

    Europe also has a lot of good marine yards that can make Navy vessels and submarines.

    And it can drum up drone production in a rapid tempo where needed.

    What’s more, European Steel and metallurgy are out of the door of higher grade than the US, Russia and Chinese productions. This is a boon to produce heavy armor quickly.

    So when push comes to shove Europe can no doubt ramp up a unified military industry rapidly, no need for it to take a decade, and keep finances in house. Another factor that works against the Trump economy if he thoughtlessly pulls the plug on NATO


  • Yeah he’ll withdraw troops and NATO support no matter how things go in Europe …

    He’ll need more armyboots at home defending his regime … also needs to recoup costs due to losing out on tax income and tariff lies. Then there is this thing where he wants to give Putin this favor of dismantling NATO.

    So, his demand was 2% in 2017 … and countries are exceeding that, Poland is already spending more than even the US, and Germany is climbing, so he upped it to 5% to get the excuse of the US backing out.

    Even if they meet 5%, in a few years he’ll up it further.

    Ofcourse for now he’ll assume the NATO members still feel bound to keep supplying intelligence information and buy American weaponry, even if NATO falls apart.




  • Yes, it’s mostly Putins goal, he knows the US will be too busy internally/incompetent to mean anything on a world stage so Russia takes the lead.

    Musk is a firm believer of being part of the destruction of the world and desires to be on the forefront of reshaping it… For him it’s all good 'till the restructuring begins.

    So the path to world war has been firmly set in motion:

    Trump fully destroys the US’ international influence by dismantling the NATO and UN memberships, closing bases on foreign soil and discarding its external intelligence machine.

    Ukraine will not want to be conquered and can make its own nukes, will be a huge pain for Russia.

    Russia will attempt to take back eastern Europe, first through (political)chaos then by force, like it has done times and times again in the past.

    Iran will see the US kneeling before Russia and openly attacks Israel with all it has, the US will try to call on the Arab states to intervene, but it would be in the name of Israel which… yeah is a bit awkward…

    India and Japan will declare neutrality, Japan closes itself off from the world as in the olden days, and India has a few worms to pick with Pakistan…

    Afrika is a tribal bloodbath on it’s own and no party in this.

    China will feel legitimized in taking Taiwan and perhaps all of Korea, which destroys the Wests supply of silicon. Causing a tipping point into all out war over the whole globe…


  • The conversation ran off while I responded to the original comment, I have no desire to mingle in an ongoing discussion…

    Besides that, I can not speak of things that can no longer happen, Harris is out, Biden is out. Nor do I know what Trump’s successor will do.

    Why something did not happen under Biden is not relevant, Biden did not promise to stop the war day 1, he did not proclaim himself the great deal maker and ender of wars. Ukraine should have been given NATO membership, OR at least NATO protection way back when they were forced to give up their nukes. I say it was a mistake that putin took advantage of.

    But the right thing to do currently, and something I do think Harris and/or Biden would have done or worked towards (undermining internal US politics not taken in account) is put a permanent American security force inside Ukraine, including naval bases. There would be boots on the ground as a security measure and amends for broken promises. Also, there is NO reason Trump couldn’t offer this in his “deal” other than putin saying no. Instead Trump plainly offers nothing and calls it a peace deal.

    As I an others pointed out now, this is at least the 3rd time that Putin tries to conquer Ukraine and various promises from the West were made (as well as promises broken from Russia’s side) in the past that Ukraine would know peace and safety … I do think after the 3rd time Putin needs to learn that enough is enough.

    Now, returning to my original remark, this is not a peace “deal” at all … this is just not so covertly telling putin to come take it whenever he feels comfortable doing so, best while Trump personally is still in power so he can again sit back and do nothing about it.


  • You are deluded into Trump offering anything, he is not, he is taking it all away so Russia can go have their way with Ukraine in about 5 years… AGAIN.

    • No (NATO) Soldiers on the ground to safeguard peace.
    • No NATO membership … because putin says so.
    • No giving back territories forcibly taken by invader Russia.
    • No reparations to be made by invader Russia.
    • No more standing national Ukrainian army, “defensive” task force only.
    • No making money for Ukraine on their own resources, it will all go to putin one way or another.
    • No guarantees or safeguards whatsoever that putin will not come back and go scorched earth on Ukraine and utterly displace a people, like it is already doing.
    • No keeping the seized Russian assets as payments and penalties for the war, it is all to be given back to Putin together with the wests deepest humble apologies.

    What does Trump think the Ukrainians were fighting for anyway if its all given away like that?

    This is all purely the USA LOSING, there is no deal here, Trump is kneeling before Putin.

    And an ending note: Ukraine should be applauded, they DID make headway, reconquered lost territories, conquered parts of Russia itself, and most of all it stood firm agains a country far larger with greater resources to throw at them but they pushed back the invader and made Russia pay dearly every chance they got because Russia has no business in Ukraine.

    And a small bonus on top: it showed the world how weak the Russian army really is, most of its technology now proven to be inferior and only its centuries old strategy of throwing cannon fodder 'till the other side runs out of ammo is what keeps Russia in the fight.

    But again, Trump is the huge loser in this conflict, Ukraine can stand proud but abandoned, and Putin laughs 'till he falls asleep.


  • Alas, the message Heggseth is spreading in Trump’s name in Europe and Ukraine is that all will be given to Putin and all the fighting and killing and spending of billions has been moot.

    No US protection, no NATO soldiers in Ukraine to keep peace.

    No return of taken lands, no reparations to be paid by invader russia.

    No NATO membership.

    No large Ukrainian army allowed.

    And ofcourse: No guarantees that Putin won’t return to forcibly claim the rest or destroy Ukraine 5 years on.

    And it is not spoken of but the valuable resources go to Russia, not the US. The seized Russian assets ofcourse will be given back to Putin under a gesture of severe groveling and kneeling by the west.

    In effect, the USA lost all and Putin won the conflict.

    Think about it … the USA LOSES this conflict against a severely outclassed enemy. Only because Trump is afraid of his idol Putin.




  • Putin is signaling to his adoring fan Trump that Ukraine’s special resources “belong” to Russia.

    To both Trump and Putin this is not about Ukraine at all.

    The crux of the matter is: did Trump wake up about the value of those resources and prefers to permanently claim them for himself? Or will he see it as a great gift to hand them to Putin on a later date so that both can “save face”?

    Putin wants the resources and will destroy the identity of Ukraine and make it Russian so it will never leave the flock again. He will also keep trying, in 10 years or more he will keep coming back for the resources. He has done it in 1990, in 2014 and in 2021. But he needs Ukraine to be fully disarmed.

    In 1990 he forced Ukraine to give away it’s nuclear armaments, later he made it give up the navy that Ukraine was left with when it split from the USSR. In 2014 he saw chance to take parts of Ukraine by force, thinking he could take the rest by subterfuge of having his own soldiers fight anonymously as “breakaway Ukraine rebels” but it failed because Ukraine was still armed well and intent on defending it’s identity. 2021 Putin tried again, thinking Ukraine’s armaments now were hopelessly outdated and Russia had a lot of “modern” material, his 3-day takeover plan was thwarted by the Ukrainian fighting spirit. And what is worse, it showed that the military might of Russia was a paper tiger, the equipment was not up to snuff to an enemy intent on defending itself, so Russia had to fall back to it’s centuries old tactic of overwhelming the enemy with cannon fodder.

    But now the limit of reasonability is reached, Putin can not endlessly throw cannonfodder at Ukraine. With all the western weapons far outclassing what it can fabricate and train, Russia has lost the military fight and will turn to political paths. First to keep the conquered Ukrainian lands and designate them as Russia, then have the West lose interest in Ukraine’s membership of NATO and perhaps the EU. But still demand the delivery of the resources to Russia. And in about 15 years he’ll come with the same excuse again and try to take Ukraine once more.

    Russia wants the resources … In time the gas supplies will have its prices slashed due to the continued growth of renewable energy.

    And his adoring fan Trump can and likely will aid him speed it all up if he can use him to have the west withdraw all support.