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Cake day: August 9th, 2023

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  • China might have a 2 year window coming up where it’s even possible to invade Taiwan. Their military has modernized a lot, but they probably aren’t quite to the point of being able to pull it off. At the same time, they are looking at a demographic cliff from the long term implications of the One Child policy.

    It’s possible this window as already closed. That said, authoritarian regimes have started wars before that were terrible ideas.


  • Eeeeehhh, if you just look at numbers of boats, yes. The US Navy has far, far more experience, though. Drones are also going to change the game in ways we’re only starting to see with the Ukraine War. With that, the answer might be “everyone’s boats are sunk now”.

    China probably couldn’t gain air superiority over Taiwan, and without that, an invasion will fail. That will be true even if the US ends up losing more boats.






  • Not necessarily a nepo hire, but they are scraping the barrel.

    Project 2025’s playbook was to fire all the existing people in the federal government and replace them with Trump loyalists. To that end, they created a list of pre-vetted replacements.

    Problem is, those people are vetted for loyalty first, and competence a distant second. Also, a lot of them likely have jobs already that are more lucrative than a federal position. In other cases, their circumstances change in the months in between vetting and the offer becoming concrete. So even though they may have a few thousand people on the list, a big chunk of them aren’t going to accept when the time comes. Those that do aren’t necessarily going to be qualified in any way.

    What may be surprising here is that they’re scraping the bottom so quickly. You’d think out of several thousand possibilities, they could find someone more qualified than this guy.

    This tends to be destructive in the short term, because incompetent people are making important decisions. In the long term, it’s one of the self-defeating factors of fascism. A system just can’t work this way, but it can destroy the rest of society before it implodes on itself.






  • Yeah, this stuff takes time to work out. As long as the side effects aren’t a big deal, they might err on the side of too much.

    Covid vaccines were something of an exception because they were motivated and infections were widespread. Lots of chances to get good data. Treatments for other diseases don’t have those advantages.

    The HPV vax, for example, was released in 2016 on a three dose schedule. There’s some studies out there that argue two doses would be plenty, but it’s not a consensus, either. That’s after almost a decade.

    PrEP is already keeping HIV infection rates pretty low, at least in rich countries where there’s money to do these studies. Not going to be good data on dose schedules for many, many years. Maybe even decades.






  • frezik@midwest.socialtoFuck Cars@lemmy.worldNo words
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    11 days ago

    There are plenty of reasons a worker would choose a van. There are plenty of reason a worker would choose a truck.

    Consider this setup:

    Everything is made to be easily accessible. The rack can hold ladders and conduit that are as long as the vehicle (or even a bit longer). Other setups will have side access toolboxes.

    Fifth wheels are not just for campers. They haul Bobcats. They haul livestock. They haul large sheds or even small houses. They haul several pallets of bricks.

    For that matter, try getting pallet into a van as opposed to a truck bed. If it’s even possible to fit it in a van, you have to be a lot more careful while doing it.