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Cake day: 2025年10月2日

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  • I have no skin in the game but I have worked professionally as both an academic scientist and a data scientist in the private sector and I can tell you that peer review is great but a lot of legitimate research is done outside the bounds of academic journals. It is entirely possible for amateurs to do real science.

    If the effect size is large enough, you dont actually need to be that rigorous about it. No one needed to do a study on whether there was a direct correlation between adverse medical outcomes and gunshot wounds to the head.




  • Strong disagree with your characterization. I went to a crunchy liberal arts college in upstate NY. I came in as a republican and left as a libertarian. I went hard left years later after entering the workforce and learning about how the world really works. K-12 did way more damage to my understanding of the world and college didnt really do a lot to change that. The idea that college is some kind of propaganda machine is itself propaganda. Of those who come out liberalized it mostly just has to do with exposure to people from different backgrounds and classes. Said another way, people get disabused of their parochial upbringing which can look like indoctrination from the perspective of small-minded yokels back home.

    No, I do not regret my college education. It gave me the tools to understand the world around me, and to be a successful and more complete person. The cost is too high, but what else is true in the US?



  • I used to work in academic physics, and I currently work in data science. I am deeply familiar with both ends of the subject in question. LLMs are useful research tools because they speed up the reference finding and literature review process, not because they synthesize new information that does not need to be independently verified.

    In the context of medical research, they could absolutely use LLMs to facilitate a literature search. What LLMs cannot do is hand researchers a proposed cure that they could sell to people. You still need to do the leg work of synthesizing the molecules, standardizing the process, industrializing it, patenting it, multiple rounds of testing on increasingly complex animals and eventually people, and then going through the drug approval process with the FDA and others. LLMs speed up the CHEAPEST and EASIEST part of the research process. That is why LLMs will not be handing us the cure for cancer.



  • Yes, selling the actual cure would be profitable…but an LLM would only ever provide the text for synthesizing it but none of the extensive testing, licensing, or manufacturing, etc… An existing pharmaceutical company would have to believe the LLM and then front the costs for the development, testing, and manufacture…which constitutes a large proportion of the costs of bringing a treatment to market. Burning compute time on that is a waste of resources, especially when fleecing horny losers is available right now. It is just business.






  • If you have a company in a small town and everything is paid for and the size of the town isnt growing or changing, you actually do not need to grow. There is a company in Leadville, Colorado called “Melanzana”. They make technical hoodies - they’re pretty good. They actively shrank their business by closing their online storefront to reduce demand and reduce the burden of keeping up with that demand.

    HOWEVER, if you have a business that is plugged into a larger marketplace and you have investors or have growing rents, etc. your investors expect a return on their investment and your growing costs need to be addressed so the only option is to grow to keep up.

    Super interesting topic when you contextualize within a closed, limited, physical space. And by “super interesting” I mean dystopian.



  • I suppose it really depends on what freedoms you consider important and how much you weigh things. It is true, in china, you cant be openly critical of the regime. FWIW, that is increasingly true in the US.

    However, in china, you are free to not be killed by violence. You are free to get affordable healthcare. You are free to get affordable high quality food. You are free to get affordable housing (outside of Beijing and a few other financial centers). You are free to get an affordable high quality education. I dunno. There are tradeoffs. The US is increasingly offering less and less by way of substantive freedoms and is becoming more and more authoritarian.

    Also, have you actually been to china? How much of what you know about china is based in outdated information from 30 years ago or might just be straight up propaganda? I have been in the last 10 years and it blew my mind and changed a lot about how viewed the country.