No using search engines or calculator, just imagine you were given these choices in jail and got 30 seconds to choose.

Would you rather have the executioner (Please excuse my use of firearm terminology, I’m not an expert in guns):

[A] Load 1 chamber of 6 and spin before pull the trigger 6 times (spinning the chamber after each pull)

or

[B] Load 2 chamber of 6 and spin before pull the trigger 3 times (spinning the chamber after each pull)

or

[C] Load 4 chamber of 6 and spin before pull the trigger once

If you survive, you are pardoned of all crimes you’ve committed in the past and get to leave prison (alive, obviously), no compensation tho. (Attempts to end your own life is illegal)

Which of these options would you pick?

No search engine, no calculator pls. I’m bored and wanna make this fun. 😉

If you are confused, ask in comments.

Edit: Reworded it to clarify that the chamber is spinned before the first trigger is pulled.

  • agent_nycto@lemmy.world
    0·
    7 months ago

    Guessed A then looked in the comments and that looked to be the best option so now I’m gonna roll some dice to see if I got released or not

    Edit: aw beans

    • subtext@lemmy.world
      0·
      7 months ago

      Spoiler:

      Tap for spoiler

      0/6 chance to live <— actually I’m probably wrong about this one, I missed the “spin after each pull”… should be (5/6)^6 chance to live (~34%)

      2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3 chance to live = 8/27 chance to live (~30%)

      2/6 chance to live (~33%)

  • OsrsNeedsF2P@lemmy.ml
    0·
    7 months ago

    A. It’s either A or B, something about the fractions, but it’ll take me more than 30 seconds to reason it out.

  • Slyme@lemm.eeEnglish
    0·
    7 months ago

    Attempts to end your own life is illegal

    What are they gonna do? Kill me?

    Also, I’m gonna say B before doing the math.

    I've done the math, I think.

    Okay, the probability of living is the amount of unloaded chambers over the amount of chambers in total to the power of the amount of shots taken. Given that, we can conclude that…

    • Option A ((5/6)^6) gives you a 33.49% chance of survival,
    • Option B ((4/6)^3) gives you a 29.63% chance of survival, and
    • Option C ((2/6)^1) gives you a 33.33% chance of survival

    So, turns out, I’ve chosen the worst odds. Whoops. However, they’re so close that it honestly doesn’t matter that much.

    Also, sorry to those whose clients don’t do spoilers. I’m with you on that one, I use Eternity.

  • mittyta@lemmy.world
    0·
    7 months ago

    After quick math, I’ll choose B. I believe it has 50% success rate.

    Edit: oh no, “spinning after each shot”

  • Sibbo@sopuli.xyz
    0·
    7 months ago

    Does she spin before the first shot? Otherwise the bullet would always be in position to be fired. I assume so. Then option C, simply by expected value.

    With 30 seconds being up, I must admit I can’t calculate (5/6)^6 or (2/3)^3 fast enough to make a better comparison between the options.

    Also, to be politically correct, what are my executioners pronouns? I just assumed she now, which may of course be offensive and I’m sorry for that.

  • BougieBirdie@lemmy.blahaj.zoneEnglish
    0·
    7 months ago

    Segue, what makes you more comfortable for B?

    This 🌕🌕🌑🌑🌑🌑
    Or
    That 🌕🌑🌑🌕🌑🌑

    My first read I missed that the you were spinning the chamber between shots. I was thinking people pick B assuming its the first one and then get fucked the second way

    Anyway, I think I’d go with C. If it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen, and I didn’t get to death row by not believing in instant gratification

  • wheeldawg@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
    0·
    7 months ago

    Isn’t A by far the best odds? If he spins after each shot doesn’t it kinda reset to really being 5/6 chance you’re ok minus the one fired last, so 4/6.

  • NeoNachtwaechter@lemmy.world
    0·
    7 months ago

    I would choose not to take part in this stupid game.

    But regarding your math, the option C has the highest chance of surviving

    A: (5 * 5 * 5 * 5 * 5 * 5) / (6 * 6 * 6 * 6 * 6 * 6) = terribly low

    B: (2 * 2 * 2) / (3 * 3 * 3) = something like 0.3

    C: 1/3 = 0.33

  • Limonene@lemmy.world
    0·
    7 months ago

    Off the top of my head, I think the best chances of survival are: C, A, B. I’m not sure about A vs. C, because A’s total odds are hard to calculate in my head, while C is exactly 1/3 (33.33%).

    The reason A is better than B is that a 1/6 chance of dying, twice, is better than a 2/6 chance of dying, once. They might seem at first like the same, but consider that one of those 36 chances in the A case is where you get shot twice in a row. That’s no worse than a regular death. So it comes out to only 11/36 of dying in the first two rounds of A, but 12/36 of dying in the first one round of B.

    spoiler

    Using a calculator. it turns out A is actually 0.16% better than C. They’re really about the same.