Elon Musk has stated that Tesla will begin producing its Optimus robot for internal use before the end of next year.
While it should have been obvious anyway here is confirmation it’s all bullshit
Why, when you have the ability to build robots of any shape or size, would you want to build a humanoid robot in particular? Are they just lacking creativity? Or is being humanoid just hype, like dotcom or AI?
Because the entire world is designed around the human body and the way it moves. It’s theoretically much easier to introduce a humanoid robot into an existing workspace than it is to retrofit all the doors, stairs, etc. to allow a wheeled robot to move around.
I’m not sure that can be the case when it’s increasingly the case that buildings are built to be accessible by wheeled humans currently, often mandated by law.
That applies to public spaces, yes, but not ALL spaces. I’m on the board of directors for a small non-profit organization that expanded their facility a few years ago. We had to prove for ADA compliance that one floor of our facility was restricted in its use and not for public access. If we had been required to make it publicly accessible then it would have required an elevator, which would have been so expensive that it would have put an end to that expansion project before it even started. The public spaces are all fully ADA compliant. Those private spaces are not.
Also, like most building code requirements etc. the ADA only comes into effect with new construction or when the renovations to an existing property exceed a certain threshold (I forget the specifics). There are plenty of older buildings out there that aren’t fully ADA compliant.
I know people who live on 3rd floor walkups that were likely built 100+ years ago with narrow curved stairs as the only way in or out. If you want to replace a delivery person with a robot in places like that then wheels won’t cut it.
Because the human body is capable of so much more than a design that would be super useful for one, single thing.
If robot why hot
In other news, self driving cars will be reliable and trustworthy in 1-2 years.
Nope. Just taxis, so you don’t own the thing.
But I want my own personal luxury car that I paid $100,000 for to go out on its own in the middle of the night while I’m asleep and have it earn money for me as a self-driving Uber…
So the same as for the past decade.
Yet a robot made specifically to cook burgers, a job disparaged as simply “burger flipping”, has yet to make any inroads even though it’s been talked about since at least as far back as 2012: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/burger-making-robot-could-revolutionize-202800987.html
They’re literally using those things in White Castles and other restaurants around the country.
Two reasons why this is just another bullshit claim:
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Generalized robotics don’t have any autonomy yet. They require immense amount of power to be mobile, and charging takes a lot of time. You’d need fleets to replace fleets upon fleets. Maybe 20m of runtime, and then the same for charging.
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Everything needs to be trained for job-specific tasks. Repetitive work that does a single purpose is way easier than a robot with multiple jobs. Right now all these tech demos are simplistic at best, and only focus on single jobs.
Tesla’s robot is a total scam, akin to a child’s toy that reacts to certain things, and requires internet connectivity (wonder why???).
Boston Dynamics isn’t even trying this noise, they know what their purpose is…military use.
Agility hasn’t even demonstrated autonomy yet.
1X is maybe the closest, but again…single purpose.
Honda is basically off the map right now, but actually have the most advanced articulation platform.
It’s a mess. Stop worrying about this shit and ignore the headlines for 5 years maybe.
I think a lot of this boils down to cost, too. Especially since you made the point about Boston Dynamics. We could look up the price for Spot (the dog) or the estimates what Atlas cost. The military or some bomb defusal unit are logical target audience. They’re happy to pay that kind of money and might have some good use for it. It’ll take some time until it’s worth the price for a cost-optimized warehouse which absolutely needs humanoid robots and can’t do it with the tech that automates warehouses for decades already. And the androids need to become much more affordable (aka mass-produced) to be bought by regular consumers. So yeah. We need to invent them in the first place. And I’m pretty sure adoption will take quite some time. Just because inventing something, and mass-producing it and making it affordable are two very different things.
(And I think currently we have neither. I saw a few videos about this year’s World Robot Conference in China… And the androids look great. But they’re all doing very limited tech-demos, if at all.)
Last time I looked, the dog started at $75,000? So Atlas is going to be roughly the same as a mortgage?
Yeah, seems right. And seems like I’m not up to date with the Altas models any more. Last time I checked that thing still had rollover bars, was made of aircraft-grade aluminum and titanium, and probably also cost a similar amount to build like a decent airplane… I don’t think they’re for sale, though. Those (Boston Dynamics) bipedal robots are prototypes for research.
Issue with all those robots is energy! The Spot dog lasts for 2,5 hours. That’s why it isn’t in military use. Same for the Humanoids. Once the battery challenge is solved we‘ll see Humanoids at battle fields first. My guess.
Sure. I mean it’s not 100% that, since the military also re-fuels fighter jets mid-flight before they even reach their target, or they’ll send a large aircraft carrier ship into proximity to mitigate for that. So they’ll do it, if it’s worth the effort. But yeah, battery capacity is a severely limiting factor. And I guess walking (slowly) on the ground also cuts down on military use-cases.
I suppose a lot of people are waiting for better batteries. It’d also help electric cars, bicycles… The whole transition from fossil-fuel energy to renewables… We certainly have quite some demand for good batteries.
Damn. So a minimum of 5 years of chores I have to do still :/
Most people wouldn’t be able to even afford these things anyway. Don’t worry about it.
I would 1000% take a 30 year “mortgage” for a robot that would truly be able to absolve me of household chores LMAO
If you are willing to pay that much you can also just employ someone to clean and dust for you.
Sweeping and dusting is one thing. Cooking is just fuckin stupid though.
Dude…just get a wife.
We have very different wives.
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“There is a lot of optimism that ChatGPT-level models for robotics will soon be upon us,” says Ed Colgate, a professor at Northwestern University in Illinois.
Uh… sure.
Just watch out for those software updates. 😂
Another reason why companies like Amazon treats it’s workforce like garbage. They are seen as replaceable in the near future.
are you guys hopeful for 2nd quarter of 21st century?
No
Widespread use in industry not for personal use if you mean the right word. Robots for personal use still slow in movement because we expected robot can do multiple thing, it’s different to the robots for industrial use since it can only do one or two thing faster than human not many thing
Exactly, my first thought was “define ‘widespread’” and of course it’s not like the Jetsons…
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